Archive for July, 2024

Tackling economic growth

Tuesday, July 30th, 2024

According to the pundits, there are a number of issues that the new government will have to tackle if it wants to increase government revenues by achieving higher economic growth.

They include:

  • Encouraging investment
  • Reduce unemployment, and
  • Improve productivity

Encouraging investment

There are already generous tax reliefs that allow businesses to write off the full cost of productive assets to reduce tax charges. Any upward movement in present allowances would reduce tax revenues and compound the current government funding crisis. It’s an unlikely component of the first Labour budget.

Reduce unemployment

In a recent press release, Liz Kendall announced that the Department for Work and Pensions will be setting out changes to employment support in a focussed attempt to improve employment opportunities for the unemployed and those unable to work because of ill health or long-term disability. According to the press release:

  • Britain remains the only country in the G7 whose employment rate has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
  • 2.8 million people out of work due to ill health or disability.
  • 1 in 8 young people not in education, employment or work.
  • Spending on sickness and disability benefits is set to increase by £30bn over the next five years according to the OBR.
  • Too many people trapped in low paid, poor quality work, with little prospect of improving their lot in life. Of those in low pay in 2006, only one-in-six escaped it a decade later.

Liz Kendall argued:

“The fundamental problem we face is that the current system of employment support is designed to address the problems of yesterday – not today, tomorrow and beyond.

She said over the last 14 years the DWP has focused almost entirely on the benefits system, and specifically on implementing Universal Credit, and that “nowhere near enough attention has been paid to the wider issues – like health, skills, childcare and transport – that determine whether people get work, stay in work and get on in work.”

Improve productivity

Improvements in productivity would mean that output would rise without an immediate increase in the direct labour costs associated with its production. In turn, this would improve profitability and create the means for future increases in earnings.

According to government sources, the UK came fourth highest out of the G7 countries, with the US and Germany highest and Japan lowest. UK productivity was about 16% below the US and Germany.

Outlook

Much will depend on the government’s ability to enthuse the business community with ideas to kick-start economic activity. But if they continue to hold down taxation and reduce government borrowing, the only source of funding they will have to finance expansion will be economic growth. In some respects, this does present government with a classic – which comes first, chicken or the egg conundrum.

More regulation for trader recommendation sites

Tuesday, July 23rd, 2024

Trader recommendation sites are websites and apps often used by people to find and connect to traders from a wide range of specialisms, such as building and home improvements, plumbing, and home heating.

Working in partnership with four key consumer organisations – National Trading Standards (NTS), Trading Standards Scotland (TSS), The Society of Chief Officers of Trading Standards in Scotland (SCOTSS), and Northern Ireland Trading Standards (TSNI) – the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) analysed the conduct of these sites and identified a number of concerns that had the potential to cause harm to consumers. The issues identified include:

  • making potentially misleading claims – or creating the misleading impression – that a trader can be trusted, when in fact the platform does not vet or monitor traders;
  • failing to have appropriate vetting or verification processes in place for traders using their site or app;
  • failing to deal appropriately with and sanction problematic traders;
  • not operating effective and accessible complaints processes; and
  • presenting consumer reviews in a misleading way and failing to take appropriate steps to remove fake reviews.

To tackle these issues, the CMA’s draft advice will help trader recommendation sites better understand their obligations under consumer protection law. It provides practical advice on the key principles they should follow to protect consumers and outlines six key principles that these sites should follow:

  1. ensure that claims about services and the traders on their sites are clear and accurate, and do not mislead consumers;
  2. conduct appropriate checks before traders are allowed to advertise on their site;
  3. have accessible, transparent, and effective complaints processes;
  4. effectively monitor the performance of traders on their site;
  5. act effectively on issues highlighted by complaints or monitoring activities, including imposing sanctions; and
  6. have an effective, transparent and impartial process concerning online consumer reviews.

 

Back to work plan

Monday, July 22nd, 2024

On her first visit as Secretary of State, with the rest of the Ministerial team, Liz Kendall MP will confirm the three pillars of the Government’s Back to Work Plan:

  • A new national jobs and career service to help get more people into work, and on in their work.
  • New work, health and skills plans for the economically inactive, led by Mayors and local areas.
  • A youth guarantee for all young people aged 18 to 21.

Under the DWP’s plan, Jobcentre Plus and the National Careers Service will be merged to get more people into work and to support those seeking better opportunities with the means to find better paid work.

The Youth Guarantee will mean more opportunities for training, an apprenticeship or help to find work for all young people aged 18-21 years old, to prevent young people becoming excluded from the world of work at a young age.

More disabled people and those with health conditions will be supported to enter and stay in work, by devolving more power to local areas so they can shape a joined-up work, health, and skills offer that suits the needs of the people they serve.

Expect more incentives to be announced to reduce unemployment as the new government digs into this issue in the coming months.

As Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall said:

“Growth is our number one mission and, as the Chancellor said, our Back to Work Plan is central to achieving our plans.

“Economic inactivity is holding Britain back – it’s bad for people, it’s bad for businesses, and it’s bad for growth.

“It’s not good enough that the UK is the only G7 country with employment not back to pre-pandemic levels.”

But of course, the real test of these remarks is positive results following any necessary actions. We shall have to wait to see if these early changes have the expected results.

How will Rachel Reeves change UK taxation?

Thursday, July 18th, 2024

At some point between now and the end of 2024, Rachel Reeves will step up to the despatch box and deliver her first Autumn Statement. As tax changes announced will likely have the Office for Budget Responsibility oversight, changes announced will form the basis of the 2025 Finance Bill.

And some of her commentary will be the subject of consultation with interested parties rather than immediate integration into the UK tax code.

 

Manifesto pledges

The new government has declared its intention to action three tax related changes:

  • Ending some of the tax privileges of private schools, primarily exemption from VAT and non-payment of business rates.
  • Tightening the rules that govern the tax status of non-domiciled individuals, and
  • Introducing an increased windfall tax on energy companies.

 

Funding economic growth

As the new government seems committed to achieving economic growth, and therefore higher tax revenues, how will it fund the initial changes required to accomplish this?

 

Although the Labour Party manifesto made it clear that they would not increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT, there are a raft of other taxes that could be tweaked. For example:

  • Capital Gains Tax rates could be increased such that gains were taxed at the same rates as income. This would simplify an overly complex tax and be fairly easy to impose.
  • Inheritance tax rates could be increased, although press speculation recently has focussed on trimming IHT reliefs such as lifetime gifts, business and agricultural land reliefs.
  • Dividends are still taxed at rates slightly lower than other income sources. These lower dividend rates could be scrapped, and dividends taxed at income tax rates.
  • Stamp Duty Land Tax could be increased especially for non-domiciled individuals.

 

Tax Planning

It is highly likely that any significant tax changes will have an impact on our recommended tax planning strategies. As and when these tax changes are declared, we will notify you of the relevant detail and flag how these changes will have an impact on present tax strategies.

Government is using AI

Tuesday, July 16th, 2024

The Government Actuaries Department has declared it is using artificial intelligence to help government departments process consultation responses. In a recent news story, they said:

“We are using artificial intelligence (AI) to help clients in government departments process responses to consultations.

“This development helps public sector clients analyse responses which are submitted by people in industry and from the public. We have helped clients from government departments across the UK.

Categorise and analyse

Recently the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) used AI software to help categorise and analyse almost 120 responses for a consultation issued by a central government department. In all we processed close to half a million words through either the use of AI or reading responses.

We had to consider how best to use AI to produce an initial summary of the responses that were received. For example, we grouped respondents by industry type so that the AI could pick out themes within these groups.

We used the AI program ChatGPT to summarise the largest consultation responses (about 50 out of the number received). The team fed in all these responses for each question and instructed the AI program to summarise views in 1 to 2 paragraphs. The output was read by an actuary to ensure it reflected a technically correct summary.

“Themes and replies

The output was then collated into 40 summarised responses (one per question) from which we were able to draw out key themes and collate replies.

Actuary Laura Brunton worked on the project and said:

“While we read all the responses, the AI output was a really useful starting point to analyse the responses to make sure the output was coherently presented. We undertook further editing and were able to ensure that the AI created an initial summarised view which we could use to build in the views of all respondents.”

Is this a slippery slope or progress? It is worth noting that in future government may be tempted to use AI on a more widespread basis especially if it cuts down on the cost of producing reports and consultations.

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